MLB Home Run Picks — Monday, June 29, 2026

The top home run bets for Monday, June 29, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) — 1.70 HR/9
   99HR Score

   37.3%HR Probability

   +215Best Odds
2. Brandon Lowe
   PIT · LHH · vs Aaron Nola (PHI) — 2.18 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +296Best Odds
3. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Zebby Matthews (MIN) — 1.60 HR/9
   98HR Score

   32.0%HR Probability

   +215Best Odds
4. Nick Kurtz
   ATH · LHH · vs Eric Lauer (LAD) — 2.20 HR/9
   98HR Score

   40.7%HR Probability

   +244Best Odds
5. Seiya Suzuki
   CHC · RHH · vs Griffin Canning (SD) — 0.35 HR/9
   95HR Score

   3.7%HR Probability

   +330Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.