MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, July 2, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, July 2, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Jared Jones (PIT) — 1.71 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +186Best Odds
2. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Slade Cecconi (CLE) — 1.24 HR/9
   99HR Score

   36.3%HR Probability

   +175Model Odds
3. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Randy Vásquez (SD) — 1.30 HR/9
   99HR Score

   30.7%HR Probability

   +210Best Odds
4. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Dustin May (STL) — 0.75 HR/9
   95HR Score

   16.6%HR Probability

   +375Best Odds
5. Kerry Carpenter
   DET · LHH · vs Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) — 1.60 HR/9
   94HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +387Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.