MLB Home Run Picks — Saturday, July 4, 2026

The top home run bets for Saturday, July 4, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Hunter Greene (CIN) — 2.00 HR/9
   99HR Score

   38.9%HR Probability

   +300Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Drew Rasmussen (TB) — 1.25 HR/9
   99HR Score

   31.4%HR Probability

   +285Best Odds
3. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Michael Wacha (KC) — 0.85 HR/9
   98HR Score

   41.8%HR Probability

   +235Best Odds
4. Nick Kurtz
   ATH · LHH · vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA) — 1.16 HR/9
   98HR Score

   23.4%HR Probability

   +210Best Odds
5. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Sean Manaea (NYM) — 0.89 HR/9
   97HR Score

   26.4%HR Probability

   +440Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.