MLB Home Run Picks — Monday, July 6, 2026

The top home run bets for Monday, July 6, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Miles Mikolas (WSH) — 1.79 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +230Best Odds
2. Hunter Goodman
   COL · RHH · vs Eric Lauer (LAD) — 2.19 HR/9
   97HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +225Best Odds
3. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Mike Burrows (HOU) — 2.45 HR/9
   95HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +280Best Odds
4. Junior Caminero
   TB · RHH · vs Cam Schlittler (NYY) — 1.03 HR/9
   94HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +328Best Odds
5. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Kyle Freeland (COL) — 0.71 HR/9
   94HR Score

   18.7%HR Probability

   +241Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.