MLB Home Run Picks — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

The top home run bets for Tuesday, July 7, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Andrew Abbott (CIN) — 1.08 HR/9
   99HR Score

   24.6%HR Probability

   +185Best Odds
2. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Payton Tolle (BOS) — 1.33 HR/9
   97HR Score

   23.1%HR Probability

   +334Model Odds
3. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Tatsuya Imai (HOU) — 1.78 HR/9
   95HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +340Best Odds
4. Nick Kurtz
   ATH · LHH · vs Tarik Skubal (DET) — 1.25 HR/9
   93HR Score

   25.1%HR Probability

   +430Best Odds
5. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Andrew Alvarez (WSH) — 0.64 HR/9
   92HR Score

   32.1%HR Probability

   +310Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.