MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, July 9, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, July 9, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Nick Kurtz
   ATH · LHH · vs Framber Valdez (DET) — 0.68 HR/9
   99HR Score

   19.2%HR Probability

   +390Best Odds
2. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Brady Singer (CIN) — 2.15 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +150Best Odds
3. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Patrick Sandoval (BOS) — 0.64 HR/9
   99HR Score

   13.3%HR Probability

   +651Model Odds
4. Byron Buxton
   MIN · RHH · vs Gavin Williams (CLE) — 1.77 HR/9
   89HR Score

   32.8%HR Probability

   +205Model Odds
5. Mike Trout
   LAA · RHH · vs Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) — 1.66 HR/9
   88HR Score

   30.2%HR Probability

   +440Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.