MLB Home Run Picks — Friday, July 10, 2026

The top home run bets for Friday, July 10, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Jack Flaherty (DET) — 0.95 HR/9
   99HR Score

   33.6%HR Probability

   +230Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Cal Quantrill (TEX) — 1.75 HR/9
   99HR Score

   30.1%HR Probability

   +240Best Odds
3. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Jacob Lopez (ATH) — 0.93 HR/9
   98HR Score

   18.8%HR Probability

   +340Best Odds
4. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Ryan Weathers (NYY) — 1.11 HR/9
   97HR Score

   29.8%HR Probability

   +386Best Odds
5. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) — 0.72 HR/9
   94HR Score

   18.7%HR Probability

   +259Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.