MLB Home Run Picks — Saturday, July 11, 2026

The top home run bets for Saturday, July 11, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Kumar Rocker (TEX) — 1.59 HR/9
   99HR Score

   40.1%HR Probability

   +270Best Odds
2. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Cam Schlittler (NYY) — 0.70 HR/9
   98HR Score

   30.3%HR Probability

   +360Best Odds
3. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) — 1.83 HR/9
   97HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +218Best Odds
4. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Casey Mize (DET) — 0.18 HR/9
   97HR Score

   13.0%HR Probability

   +251Best Odds
5. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Gage Jump (ATH) — 1.20 HR/9
   92HR Score

   15.3%HR Probability

   +335Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.