MLB Home Run Picks — Sunday, July 12, 2026

The top home run bets for Sunday, July 12, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Tarik Skubal (DET) — 1.25 HR/9
   99HR Score

   42.1%HR Probability

   +347Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs MacKenzie Gore (TEX) — 0.69 HR/9
   98HR Score

   16.6%HR Probability

   +270Best Odds
3. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Will Warren (NYY) — 1.58 HR/9
   98HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +300Best Odds
4. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs J.T. Ginn (ATH) — 1.29 HR/9
   92HR Score

   29.2%HR Probability

   +287Best Odds
5. Nick Kurtz
   ATH · LHH · vs Noah Schultz (CWS) — 0.82 HR/9
   92HR Score

   11.9%HR Probability

   +741Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.