MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, July 16, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, July 16, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Christian Scott (NYM) — 1.33 HR/9
   99HR Score

   43.7%HR Probability

   +200Best Odds
2. Francisco Alvarez
   NYM · RHH · vs Aaron Nola (PHI) — 1.97 HR/9
   72HR Score

   30.1%HR Probability

   +472Best Odds
3. Bryce Harper
   PHI · LHH · vs Christian Scott (NYM) — 1.33 HR/9
   69HR Score

   33.6%HR Probability

   +320Best Odds
4. Tyrone Taylor
   NYM · RHH · vs Aaron Nola (PHI) — 1.97 HR/9
   63HR Score

   31.5%HR Probability

   +217Model Odds
5. Jared Young
   NYM · LHH · vs Aaron Nola (PHI) — 2.18 HR/9
   61HR Score

   43.4%HR Probability

   +500Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.