MLB Home Run Picks — Friday, July 17, 2026

The top home run bets for Friday, July 17, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Dean Kremer (BAL) — 3.32 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +206Best Odds
2. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Gage Jump (ATH) — 1.20 HR/9
   98HR Score

   22.2%HR Probability

   +290Best Odds
3. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Gerrit Cole (NYY) — 1.96 HR/9
   97HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +230Best Odds
4. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Cal Quantrill (TEX) — 1.75 HR/9
   94HR Score

   44.0%HR Probability

   +295Best Odds
5. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Spencer Miles (TOR) — 1.25 HR/9
   93HR Score

   27.9%HR Probability

   +340Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.