MLB Home Run Picks — Saturday, July 18, 2026

The top home run bets for Saturday, July 18, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Sean Manaea (NYM) — 0.89 HR/9
   99HR Score

   21.6%HR Probability

   +200Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Trevor Rogers (BAL) — 0.32 HR/9
   98HR Score

   15.8%HR Probability

   +286Best Odds
3. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs J.T. Ginn (ATH) — 1.29 HR/9
   97HR Score

   40.6%HR Probability

   +240Best Odds
4. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Shane Bieber (TOR) — 1.59 HR/9
   94HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +330Best Odds
5. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Ryan Weathers (NYY) — 1.11 HR/9
   93HR Score

   38.5%HR Probability

   +250Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.