MLB Home Run Picks — Sunday, July 19, 2026

The top home run bets for Sunday, July 19, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Brandon Young (BAL) — 1.07 HR/9
   99HR Score

   33.5%HR Probability

   +225Best Odds
2. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Nolan McLean (NYM) — 0.93 HR/9
   98HR Score

   34.7%HR Probability

   +270Best Odds
3. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Jacob Lopez (ATH) — 0.93 HR/9
   98HR Score

   22.7%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds
4. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Cam Schlittler (NYY) — 0.70 HR/9
   95HR Score

   30.2%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds
5. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Ryan Yarbrough (NYY) — 0.53 HR/9
   95HR Score

   30.2%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.