MLB Home Run Picks — Monday, July 20, 2026

The top home run bets for Monday, July 20, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Janson Junk (MIA) — 1.30 HR/9
   99HR Score

   29.2%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds
2. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Emmet Sheehan (LAD) — 1.76 HR/9
   98HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +215Best Odds
3. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Kyle Freeland (COL) — 0.71 HR/9
   97HR Score

   18.0%HR Probability

   +238Best Odds
4. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Jacob deGrom (TEX) — 1.34 HR/9
   92HR Score

   29.1%HR Probability

   +300Best Odds
5. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — 0.22 HR/9
   90HR Score

   12.8%HR Probability

   +430Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.