MLB Home Run Picks — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

The top home run bets for Tuesday, July 21, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Zack Wheeler (PHI) — 1.08 HR/9
   99HR Score

   35.0%HR Probability

   +240Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Tyler Phillips (MIA) — 1.12 HR/9
   99HR Score

   40.4%HR Probability

   +260Best Odds
3. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Michael Lorenzen (COL) — 2.08 HR/9
   98HR Score

   44.8%HR Probability

   +225Best Odds
4. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Justin Wrobleski (LAD) — 1.38 HR/9
   98HR Score

   44.0%HR Probability

   +215Best Odds
5. Kazuma Okamoto
   TOR · RHH · vs Drew Rasmussen (TB) — 0.60 HR/9
   95HR Score

   24.8%HR Probability

   +444Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.