MLB Home Run Picks — Wednesday, July 22, 2026

The top home run bets for Wednesday, July 22, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Eric Lauer (LAD) — 2.20 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +245Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA) — 1.16 HR/9
   98HR Score

   38.5%HR Probability

   +230Best Odds
3. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Gabriel Hughes (COL) — 0.00 HR/9
   95HR Score

   5.1%HR Probability

   +240Best Odds
4. Esmerlyn Valdez
   PIT · RHH · vs Gerrit Cole (NYY) — 0.89 HR/9
   92HR Score

   28.5%HR Probability

   +325Best Odds
5. Esmerlyn Valdez
   PIT · RHH · vs Max Fried (NYY) — 0.19 HR/9
   92HR Score

   28.5%HR Probability

   +325Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.