MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, July 23, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, July 23, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Junior Caminero
   TB · RHH · vs Shane Bieber (TOR) — 2.63 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds
2. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Kyle Hart (SD) — 2.00 HR/9
   98HR Score

   34.0%HR Probability

   +371Best Odds
3. Kazuma Okamoto
   TOR · RHH · vs Casey Legumina (TB) — 0.86 HR/9
   93HR Score

   18.6%HR Probability

   +329Best Odds
4. Spencer Torkelson
   DET · RHH · vs Randy Dobnak (KC) — 1.50 HR/9
   92HR Score

   43.4%HR Probability

   +489Best Odds
5. Kody Clemens
   MIN · LHH · vs Gavin Williams (CLE) — 1.25 HR/9
   92HR Score

   28.2%HR Probability

   +410Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.