MLB Home Run Picks — Monday, July 27, 2026

The top home run bets for Monday, July 27, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Tyler Phillips (MIA) — 1.12 HR/9
   99HR Score

   34.4%HR Probability

   +270Best Odds
2. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Max Scherzer (TOR) — 3.86 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +235Best Odds
3. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Max Fried (NYY) — 0.00 HR/9
   98HR Score

   2.7%HR Probability

   +361Best Odds
4. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Walbert Ureña (LAA) — 0.39 HR/9
   97HR Score

   18.1%HR Probability

   +235Best Odds
5. Nick Kurtz
   ATH · LHH · vs Payton Tolle (BOS) — 1.33 HR/9
   93HR Score

   17.6%HR Probability

   +284Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.