MLB Home Run Picks — Tuesday, July 28, 2026

The top home run bets for Tuesday, July 28, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Shane Bieber (TOR) — 1.59 HR/9
   99HR Score

   38.8%HR Probability

   +158Model Odds
2. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Gerrit Cole (NYY) — 1.96 HR/9
   98HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds
3. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Reid Detmers (LAA) — 0.88 HR/9
   97HR Score

   26.3%HR Probability

   +280Model Odds
4. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA) — 1.16 HR/9
   94HR Score

   22.2%HR Probability

   +351Model Odds
5. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Luis Castillo (SEA) — 1.84 HR/9
   93HR Score

   35.0%HR Probability

   +185Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.