MLB Home Run Picks — Wednesday, July 29, 2026

The top home run bets for Wednesday, July 29, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) — 1.83 HR/9
   99HR Score

   41.4%HR Probability

   +142Model Odds
2. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Trey Yesavage (TOR) — 0.96 HR/9
   97HR Score

   27.7%HR Probability

   +261Model Odds
3. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Cam Schlittler (NYY) — 0.70 HR/9
   96HR Score

   23.7%HR Probability

   +322Model Odds
4. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Ryan Gusto (MIA) — 0.90 HR/9
   93HR Score

   18.0%HR Probability

   +456Model Odds
5. Nick Kurtz
   ATH · LHH · vs Patrick Sandoval (BOS) — 0.64 HR/9
   91HR Score

   9.9%HR Probability

   +908Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.