MLB Home Run Picks — Friday, July 31, 2026

The top home run bets for Friday, July 31, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) — 1.60 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds
2. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Bryce Elder (ATL) — 1.23 HR/9
   96HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds
3. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Brandon Young (BAL) — 1.07 HR/9
   94HR Score

   28.4%HR Probability

   +252Model Odds
4. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Nick Martinez (TB) — 1.04 HR/9
   92HR Score

   34.8%HR Probability

   +187Model Odds
5. Spencer Torkelson
   DET · RHH · vs Jeffrey Springs (ATH) — 2.64 HR/9
   91HR Score

   44.2%HR Probability

   +126Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.