MLB Home Run Picks — Sunday, August 2, 2026

The top home run bets for Sunday, August 2, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Kyle Bradish (BAL) — 0.90 HR/9
   99HR Score

   39.7%HR Probability

   +152Model Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Kumar Rocker (TEX) — 1.47 HR/9
   99HR Score

   42.5%HR Probability

   +135Model Odds
3. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs TBD (ATL)
   96HR Score

   25.8%HR Probability

   +287Model Odds
4. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Griffin Jax (TB) — 1.38 HR/9
   96HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds
5. Brandon Lowe
   PIT · LHH · vs Chase Burns (CIN) — 1.48 HR/9
   93HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.