MLB Home Run Picks — Monday, August 3, 2026

The top home run bets for Monday, August 3, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Shane Bieber (TOR) — 1.53 HR/9
   99HR Score

   42.4%HR Probability

   +136Model Odds
2. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Aaron Nola (PHI) — 2.19 HR/9
   95HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds
3. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs TBD (WSH)
   94HR Score

   27.4%HR Probability

   +264Model Odds
4. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Matthew Boyd (CHC) — 0.53 HR/9
   92HR Score

   23.4%HR Probability

   +328Model Odds
5. Junior Caminero
   TB · RHH · vs Michael Lorenzen (COL) — 0.71 HR/9
   91HR Score

   29.9%HR Probability

   +234Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.