MLB Home Run Picks — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

The top home run bets for Tuesday, August 4, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Trey Yesavage (TOR) — 0.88 HR/9
   99HR Score

   28.6%HR Probability

   +249Model Odds
2. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Ryan Gusto (MIA) — 0.82 HR/9
   97HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds
3. Hunter Goodman
   COL · RHH · vs Freddy Peralta (TB) — 0.89 HR/9
   97HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds
4. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Zack Littell (WSH) — 2.79 HR/9
   97HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds
5. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Patrick Sandoval (BOS) — 1.48 HR/9
   97HR Score

   20.0%HR Probability

   +401Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.