MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, August 6, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, August 6, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Miles Mikolas (WSH) — 1.95 HR/9
   99HR Score

   44.6%HR Probability

   +124Model Odds
2. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Ranger Suarez (BOS) — 1.04 HR/9
   95HR Score

   15.2%HR Probability

   +557Model Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Ryan Johnson (LAA) — 2.29 HR/9
   93HR Score

   40.6%HR Probability

   +146Model Odds
4. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Janson Junk (MIA) — 1.21 HR/9
   92HR Score

   42.8%HR Probability

   +133Model Odds
5. Esmerlyn Valdez
   PIT · RHH · vs Dustin May (MIL) — 0.40 HR/9
   87HR Score

   8.8%HR Probability

   +1031Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.