MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, August 13, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, August 13, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Andrew Abbott (CIN) — 1.33 HR/9
   99HR Score

   19.7%HR Probability

   +368Best Odds
2. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Taj Bradley (MIN) — 1.62 HR/9
   92HR Score

   34.1%HR Probability

   +250Best Odds
3. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Shane Drohan (MIL) — 0.00 HR/9
   91HR Score

   4.7%HR Probability

   +310Best Odds
4. Spencer Torkelson
   DET · RHH · vs Parker Messick (CLE) — 0.80 HR/9
   88HR Score

   11.5%HR Probability

   +461Best Odds
5. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Logan Gilbert (SEA) — 1.69 HR/9
   86HR Score

   28.9%HR Probability

   +246Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.