MLB Home Run Picks — Friday, August 14, 2026

The top home run bets for Friday, August 14, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Jackson Jobe (DET) — 1.80 HR/9
   99HR Score

   6.3%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds
2. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Steven Matz (TB) — 2.09 HR/9
   98HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +360Best Odds
3. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs George Kirby (SEA) — 1.27 HR/9
   98HR Score

   25.3%HR Probability

   +280Best Odds
4. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Robert Gasser (MIL) — 0.58 HR/9
   93HR Score

   27.3%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds
5. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Shane Bieber (TOR) — 1.48 HR/9
   92HR Score

   24.2%HR Probability

   +313Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.