MLB Home Run Picks — Sunday, August 16, 2026

The top home run bets for Sunday, August 16, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Drew Anderson (DET) — 1.17 HR/9
   99HR Score

   30.0%HR Probability

   +362Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Bryan Woo (SEA) — 1.24 HR/9
   94HR Score

   29.2%HR Probability

   +260Best Odds
3. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Dean Kremer (MIN) — 2.09 HR/9
   93HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +279Best Odds
4. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Freddy Peralta (TB) — 1.02 HR/9
   92HR Score

   37.1%HR Probability

   +325Best Odds
5. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Dylan Cease (TOR) — 0.41 HR/9
   91HR Score

   11.7%HR Probability

   +758Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.