MLB Home Run Picks — Monday, August 17, 2026

The top home run bets for Monday, August 17, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Shota Imanaga (CHC) — 2.36 HR/9
   99HR Score

   38.5%HR Probability

   +341Best Odds
2. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) — 2.45 HR/9
   96HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +193Best Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Shane McClanahan (TB) — 0.61 HR/9
   93HR Score

   26.0%HR Probability

   +439Best Odds
4. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Janson Junk (MIA) — 0.83 HR/9
   90HR Score

   40.9%HR Probability

   +205Best Odds
5. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Bailey Ober (MIN) — 1.57 HR/9
   87HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +251Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.