MLB Home Run Picks — Tuesday, August 18, 2026

The top home run bets for Tuesday, August 18, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Kevin Gausman (CHC) — 0.96 HR/9
   99HR Score

   31.9%HR Probability

   +290Best Odds
2. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Shane Baz (BAL) — 0.51 HR/9
   97HR Score

   15.8%HR Probability

   +531Model Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Carlos Rodón (NYY) — 0.55 HR/9
   96HR Score

   14.4%HR Probability

   +410Best Odds
4. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs George Klassen (LAA) — 0.56 HR/9
   95HR Score

   27.7%HR Probability

   +240Best Odds
5. Hunter Goodman
   COL · RHH · vs Eric Lauer (LAD) — 2.17 HR/9
   92HR Score

   40.9%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.