MLB Home Run Picks — Wednesday, August 19, 2026

The top home run bets for Wednesday, August 19, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Clay Holmes (CHC) — 0.51 HR/9
   99HR Score

   31.1%HR Probability

   +440Best Odds
2. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Will Warren (NYY) — 1.44 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +317Best Odds
3. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Chris Bassitt (BAL) — 0.25 HR/9
   99HR Score

   8.4%HR Probability

   +1090Model Odds
4. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Kyle Freeland (COL) — 0.75 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +215Best Odds
5. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA) — 1.21 HR/9
   94HR Score

   39.6%HR Probability

   +225Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.