MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, August 20, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, August 20, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Grant Holmes (ATL) — 1.29 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +300Best Odds
2. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Gerrit Cole (NYY) — 1.25 HR/9
   99HR Score

   35.4%HR Probability

   +360Best Odds
3. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) — 1.80 HR/9
   95HR Score

   36.6%HR Probability

   +250Best Odds
4. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Kyle Bradish (BAL) — 1.06 HR/9
   92HR Score

   17.2%HR Probability

   +483Model Odds
5. Junior Caminero
   TB · RHH · vs Shane Bieber (TOR) — 1.48 HR/9
   90HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +290Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.