MLB Home Run Picks — Friday, August 21, 2026

The top home run bets for Friday, August 21, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Sean Manaea (NYM) — 1.05 HR/9
   99HR Score

   22.6%HR Probability

   +340Best Odds
2. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Freddy Peralta (TB) — 1.02 HR/9
   96HR Score

   34.2%HR Probability

   +315Best Odds
3. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs J.T. Ginn (ATH) — 1.30 HR/9
   95HR Score

   31.8%HR Probability

   +255Best Odds
4. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Mason Fluharty (TOR) — 1.61 HR/9
   92HR Score

   31.4%HR Probability

   +218Model Odds
5. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Hunter Dobbins (STL) — 0.84 HR/9
   91HR Score

   27.8%HR Probability

   +240Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.