MLB Home Run Picks — Saturday, August 22, 2026

The top home run bets for Saturday, August 22, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Shane McClanahan (TB) — 0.61 HR/9
   99HR Score

   32.8%HR Probability

   +410Best Odds
2. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Christian Scott (NYM) — 1.29 HR/9
   99HR Score

   40.9%HR Probability

   +280Best Odds
3. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Jacob Lopez (ATH) — 0.59 HR/9
   95HR Score

   18.4%HR Probability

   +300Best Odds
4. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Dylan Cease (TOR) — 0.41 HR/9
   92HR Score

   12.4%HR Probability

   +706Model Odds
5. Juan Soto
   NYM · LHH · vs Luis Castillo (CWS) — 2.05 HR/9
   92HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.