MLB Home Run Picks — Sunday, August 23, 2026

The top home run bets for Sunday, August 23, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Nolan McLean (NYM) — 1.06 HR/9
   99HR Score

   38.4%HR Probability

   +370Best Odds
2. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Nick Martinez (TB) — 0.95 HR/9
   95HR Score

   31.4%HR Probability

   +285Best Odds
3. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Brady Basso (ATH) — 0.00 HR/9
   94HR Score

   5.1%HR Probability

   +340Best Odds
4. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs José Soriano (TOR) — 0.39 HR/9
   92HR Score

   9.5%HR Probability

   +951Model Odds
5. Oneil Cruz
   PIT · LHH · vs Blake Snell (LAD) — 0.00 HR/9
   92HR Score

   4.1%HR Probability

   +525Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.