MLB Home Run Picks — Tuesday, August 25, 2026

The top home run bets for Tuesday, August 25, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Jacob deGrom (TEX) — 1.19 HR/9
   99HR Score

   34.5%HR Probability

   +370Best Odds
2. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Ethan Pecko (HOU) — 0.00 HR/9
   98HR Score

   3.9%HR Probability

   +2480Model Odds
3. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Will Warren (NYY) — 1.25 HR/9
   96HR Score

   30.2%HR Probability

   +240Best Odds
4. Shohei Ohtani
   LAD · LHH · vs Bryce Elder (ATL) — 1.32 HR/9
   95HR Score

   38.6%HR Probability

   +233Best Odds
5. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Mason Adams (COL) — 1.23 HR/9
   92HR Score

   20.6%HR Probability

   +385Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.