MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, August 27, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, August 27, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Gerrit Cole (NYY) — 1.47 HR/9
   99HR Score

   30.3%HR Probability

   +250Best Odds
2. Hunter Goodman
   COL · RHH · vs Jake Irvin (WSH) — 1.64 HR/9
   98HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +280Best Odds
3. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Hayden Wesneski (HOU) — 0.48 HR/9
   95HR Score

   11.9%HR Probability

   +739Model Odds
4. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) — 0.96 HR/9
   93HR Score

   21.0%HR Probability

   +468Best Odds
5. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Gabriel Hughes (COL) — 0.72 HR/9
   91HR Score

   13.8%HR Probability

   +622Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.