MLB Home Run Picks — Friday, August 28, 2026

The top home run bets for Friday, August 28, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Dean Kremer (MIN) — 2.09 HR/9
   99HR Score

   42.1%HR Probability

   +310Best Odds
2. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Patrick Sandoval (BOS) — 0.89 HR/9
   98HR Score

   30.5%HR Probability

   +228Model Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Jacob Lopez (ATH) — 1.93 HR/9
   95HR Score

   44.8%HR Probability

   +220Best Odds
4. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Christian Scott (NYM) — 1.29 HR/9
   93HR Score

   24.0%HR Probability

   +280Best Odds
5. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Reid Detmers (LAA) — 0.79 HR/9
   89HR Score

   28.1%HR Probability

   +260Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.