MLB Home Run Picks — Saturday, August 29, 2026

The top home run bets for Saturday, August 29, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Bailey Ober (MIN) — 1.57 HR/9
   99HR Score

   33.7%HR Probability

   +270Best Odds
2. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Jack Perkins (ATH) — 1.66 HR/9
   96HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +223Best Odds
3. Oneil Cruz
   PIT · LHH · vs Kyle Leahy (STL) — 1.25 HR/9
   94HR Score

   32.5%HR Probability

   +525Best Odds
4. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Nolan McLean (NYM) — 1.06 HR/9
   94HR Score

   20.7%HR Probability

   +303Best Odds
5. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Ryan Johnson (LAA) — 2.06 HR/9
   91HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +210Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.