MLB Home Run Picks — Sunday, August 30, 2026

The top home run bets for Sunday, August 30, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Zebby Matthews (MIN) — 1.80 HR/9
   99HR Score

   33.3%HR Probability

   +325Best Odds
2. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Jeffrey Springs (ATH) — 2.29 HR/9
   96HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds
3. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Zac Thornton (NYM) — 1.17 HR/9
   94HR Score

   11.3%HR Probability

   +325Best Odds
4. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Janson Junk (MIA) — 0.83 HR/9
   93HR Score

   23.5%HR Probability

   +325Model Odds
5. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) — 0.77 HR/9
   90HR Score

   25.9%HR Probability

   +255Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.