MLB Home Run Picks — Monday, August 31, 2026

The top home run bets for Monday, August 31, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Peter Lambert (HOU) — 0.59 HR/9
   99HR Score

   20.5%HR Probability

   +388Model Odds
2. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Tanner Gordon (COL) — 1.17 HR/9
   96HR Score

   35.4%HR Probability

   +182Model Odds
3. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Anthony Kay (CWS) — 0.43 HR/9
   95HR Score

   12.0%HR Probability

   +733Model Odds
4. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Anthony Molina (SF) — 1.50 HR/9
   89HR Score

   3.9%HR Probability

   +2464Model Odds
5. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Ryan Gusto (MIA) — 0.84 HR/9
   88HR Score

   14.9%HR Probability

   +572Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.