MLB Home Run Picks — Tuesday, September 1, 2026

The top home run bets for Tuesday, September 1, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Ronel Blanco (HOU) — 2.20 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +307Best Odds
2. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) — 1.23 HR/9
   99HR Score

   34.6%HR Probability

   +189Model Odds
3. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Jake Irvin (WSH) — 1.42 HR/9
   93HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +270Best Odds
4. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Gabriel Hughes (COL) — 0.95 HR/9
   93HR Score

   30.6%HR Probability

   +299Best Odds
5. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Sean Burke (CWS) — 1.20 HR/9
   92HR Score

   30.2%HR Probability

   +290Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.