MLB Home Run Picks — Wednesday, September 2, 2026

The top home run bets for Wednesday, September 2, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Hayden Wesneski (HOU) — 0.67 HR/9
   99HR Score

   25.7%HR Probability

   +289Model Odds
2. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Grant Holmes (ATL) — 1.29 HR/9
   98HR Score

   33.5%HR Probability

   +199Model Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) — 1.20 HR/9
   98HR Score

   28.2%HR Probability

   +255Model Odds
4. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Davis Martin (CWS) — 0.81 HR/9
   96HR Score

   23.1%HR Probability

   +333Model Odds
5. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Reid Detmers (LAA) — 0.96 HR/9
   95HR Score

   20.7%HR Probability

   +383Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.