MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, September 3, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, September 3, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Hunter Brown (HOU) — 1.19 HR/9
   99HR Score

   31.2%HR Probability

   +450Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Luis Castillo (CWS) — 2.05 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +285Best Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Jake Bennett (BOS) — 1.40 HR/9
   91HR Score

   15.4%HR Probability

   +320Best Odds
4. Oneil Cruz
   PIT · LHH · vs Blade Tidwell (SF) — 2.01 HR/9
   88HR Score

   32.3%HR Probability

   +350Best Odds
5. Joshua Báez
   STL · RHH · vs Tarik Skubal (LAD) — 0.75 HR/9
   86HR Score

   44.1%HR Probability

   +650Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.