MLB Home Run Picks — Friday, September 4, 2026

The top home run bets for Friday, September 4, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Zebby Matthews (MIN) — 1.80 HR/9
   99HR Score

   29.1%HR Probability

   +300Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Merrill Kelly (AZ) — 1.91 HR/9
   94HR Score

   42.1%HR Probability

   +250Best Odds
3. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — 0.18 HR/9
   91HR Score

   10.1%HR Probability

   +890Model Odds
4. James Wood
   WSH · LHH · vs Blake Snell (LAD) — 0.00 HR/9
   90HR Score

   2.4%HR Probability

   +490Best Odds
5. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Walker Buehler (SD) — 1.41 HR/9
   90HR Score

   24.2%HR Probability

   +314Model Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.