MLB Home Run Picks — Saturday, September 5, 2026

The top home run bets for Saturday, September 5, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Sonny Gray (BOS) — 0.88 HR/9
   99HR Score

   36.6%HR Probability

   +390Best Odds
2. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Taj Bradley (MIN) — 1.62 HR/9
   99HR Score

   25.9%HR Probability

   +340Best Odds
3. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Robbie Ray (SD) — 1.55 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +122Model Odds
4. Hunter Goodman
   COL · RHH · vs Matthew Liberatore (STL) — 1.55 HR/9
   95HR Score

   41.6%HR Probability

   +300Best Odds
5. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) — 1.71 HR/9
   94HR Score

   38.4%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.