MLB Home Run Picks — Sunday, September 6, 2026

The top home run bets for Sunday, September 6, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Bailey Ober (MIN) — 1.57 HR/9
   99HR Score

   35.7%HR Probability

   +290Best Odds
2. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Tyler Mahle (ATL) — 1.05 HR/9
   95HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +270Best Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Payton Tolle (BOS) — 0.83 HR/9
   94HR Score

   16.7%HR Probability

   +390Best Odds
4. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Aaron Nola (PHI) — 1.85 HR/9
   94HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +291Best Odds
5. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) — 0.70 HR/9
   93HR Score

   10.9%HR Probability

   +370Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.