MLB Home Run Picks — Monday, September 7, 2026

The top home run bets for Monday, September 7, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Grant Holmes (ATL) — 1.29 HR/9
   99HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +230Best Odds
2. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Joey Cantillo (CLE) — 1.19 HR/9
   99HR Score

   20.0%HR Probability

   +409Best Odds
3. Juan Soto
   NYM · LHH · vs Eury Pérez (MIA) — 0.68 HR/9
   94HR Score

   30.1%HR Probability

   +320Best Odds
4. Rafael Devers
   SF · LHH · vs Michael McGreevy (STL) — 1.24 HR/9
   93HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +500Best Odds
5. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Jesús Luzardo (PHI) — 0.19 HR/9
   93HR Score

   8.6%HR Probability

   +390Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.