MLB Home Run Picks — Wednesday, September 9, 2026

The top home run bets for Wednesday, September 9, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) — 1.20 HR/9
   99HR Score

   35.5%HR Probability

   +200Best Odds
2. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Lake Bachar (PIT) — 1.30 HR/9
   99HR Score

   29.4%HR Probability

   +310Best Odds
3. Pete Alonso
   BAL · RHH · vs Foster Griffin (CLE) — 1.23 HR/9
   94HR Score

   26.7%HR Probability

   +350Best Odds
4. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — 0.18 HR/9
   90HR Score

   9.4%HR Probability

   +300Best Odds
5. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Hunter Brown (HOU) — 1.19 HR/9
   88HR Score

   45.0%HR Probability

   +265Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.