MLB Home Run Picks — Thursday, September 10, 2026

The top home run bets for Thursday, September 10, 2026, ranked by the Dingers.AI model. Each pick blends Statcast contact quality, recent form, ballpark home run factors, the opposing pitcher's HR/9, and game-time weather into a single HR Score (0–99).

Today's Top 5 Home Run Picks

1. Munetaka Murakami
   CWS · LHH · vs Jared Jones (PIT) — 1.24 HR/9
   99HR Score

   36.3%HR Probability

   +340Best Odds
2. Yordan Alvarez
   HOU · LHH · vs Zack Wheeler (PHI) — 1.49 HR/9
   94HR Score

   41.5%HR Probability

   +260Best Odds
3. Matt Olson
   ATL · LHH · vs Nick Martinez (TB) — 1.10 HR/9
   92HR Score

   33.0%HR Probability

   +310Best Odds
4. Aaron Judge
   NYY · RHH · vs Ryan Feltner (COL) — 1.71 HR/9
   92HR Score

   31.0%HR Probability

   +255Best Odds
5. Kyle Schwarber
   PHI · LHH · vs Cristian Javier (HOU) — 0.64 HR/9
   88HR Score

   42.2%HR Probability

   +194Best Odds

See the full live board → Build a HR parlay

How these home run picks are made

Dingers.AI scores every hitter in the day's MLB slate for home run probability. The model weights Statcast contact quality most heavily (barrel rate, exit velocity, hard-hit %, launch angle), then layers in recent power form, park factors by handedness, the starting pitcher's home-run vulnerability, and live weather. See the full methodology on how it works, browse live HR prop odds, or view the complete home run prediction table.